The Latest CEO Survey Rattles Nerves in Junts: Orriols Turns His Back on Them

Since Aliança Catalana emerged, it seems clear that Junts has changed its discourse. From sharing the environmental progressivism of the procés, Junts has hardened its discourse for the gallery. In a short time, Puigdemont's party has gone from calling for the closure of the CIEs to not wanting more immigration.

If one reviews the dance between Junts and the PSOE, it is observed that many of the alleged concessions from the PSOE are related to immigration or security. The Government, for example, allowed Junts to take credit for proposing a legal tightening against repeat offenses. Similarly, Junts has fought for the transfer of immigration to Catalonia or to not receive more "menas."

On the other hand, examples of Junts's clumsiness with Aliança Catalana have already been seen. The clearest case was the phantom motion of no confidence in Ripoll. From championing an unnatural alliance, Junts backtracked and left Orriols as mayor. Beyond the grand explanations, Junts changed its mind because they knew that in 2027 Orriols would sweep in Ripoll.

But the latest CEO data do not show that Junts's maximalist strategy is working. On the contrary: Aliança Catalana remains unfazed in the polls and takes about 7-8 deputies from Junts. That is, Orriols quintuplicates her results at the expense of Puigdemont.

These data point to a curious dynamic within post-procés Catalonia. What seemed to be a collapse for the left is harming the right much more. In fact, the CUP remains the same and ERC even rises a bit. Consequently, the other big beneficiary of Junts's losses is the tripartite, which is expected to strengthen its deliberate opposition to Aliança Catalana.

Two Causes: Smoke Bombs with the PSOE and Double Game in Catalonia

Two causes can be identified that explain this situation. The first is that Junts tries to play both sides. While presenting a very tough media profile, they buy establishment measures so that their opposition to AC is not so evident. There are the speeches of figures like Madaula or Colomines, or contradictory positions like Catalan courses for radical imams or Arabic in public schools.

In summary, Junts has the problem of any systemic Western right. On one hand, it can't leave the system because it largely lives off it (party subsidies, allied media, etc.). On the other hand, it doesn't have enough strength to oppose the competition that comes from outside the system (AC).

The second cause is that, once the procés collapsed, Junts's natural voter has been very disillusioned. This translates into it being very difficult to convince them that the maneuvers with the PSOE are real and not smoke bombs to gain media profile. There are glaring cases, such as Catalan in Europe. Additionally, it doesn't help that Junts criticizes Rodalies while having one of their own on Renfe's board of directors.

Finally: the data from this latest survey are especially important for another reason: the legislature is still in its early stages. It remains to be seen how this dynamic continues until 2027, the year of the municipal and regional elections. Until then, it is not out of the question that Junts could be the victim of the change of course that the West is experiencing and that Catalonia is internalizing with its own timing.