The Total Break Between ERC and Junts in Madrid Demands a New War in Catalonia

The ERC-Junts Split in the Govern of the Generalitat in the Fall of 2022 Was a Turning Point in the Relations Between Both Parties. Since Then, the Reconstruction of the Pro-Independence Unity Has Been Hindered by the Ego of Their Two Leaders, Oriol Junqueras and Carles Puigdemont. But Also by the Complexity of the New Scenario, with Several Fronts Open in Brussels, Madrid, and Catalonia.

Oriol Junqueras and Carles Puigdemont Staged a Willingness to Reconcile After Being Elected a Few Months Ago as Presidents of ERC and Junts. Junqueras Visited the Casa de la República in Waterloo in January as Proof of That Willingness. But the Tensions in Parliament, and Especially the Total Breakdown of Relations in Madrid, Currently Prevent Any Reconciliation.

Moreover, the Spectacle Offered Last Week by Gabriel Rufián in the Congress of Deputies Foretells a New War in Catalonia. Oriol Junqueras and Carles Puigdemont Are Waiting for the Right Moment to Step onto the Scene and Fight One Last Battle of the Process. Both Want to Preside Over the Generalitat in the Next Catalan Elections in 2028.

The Process War Breaks Out in Congress

ERC and Junts Are Engaged in a Low-Intensity War in Parliament, Where Prudence and Cordiality Currently Prevail. Junts Is Focusing Its Criticism on PSC, While ERC Takes Advantage of Its Role as a Priority Partner to Surreptitiously Isolate Junts. The Low Profile of Their Leaders, Josep Maria Jové and Albert Batet, Also Favors This Non-Aggression Pact in the Catalan Chamber.

The War Between ERC and Junts Has Ended Up Breaking Out in the Congress of Deputies, and It Makes Sense. The Rivalry Between Republicans and Post-Convergents Has Shifted from the National Axis to Ideological Coordinates. Gabriel Rufián and Míriam Nogueras Not Only Have More Leadership Than Jové and Batet, but They Also Represent This Polarization Like No One Else.

The Relationship Between Gabriel Rufián and Míriam Nogueras Has Never Been Very Smooth. But After the Investiture of Pedro Sánchez, They Were Forced to Understand Each Other for the Common Interest in Matters Like Amnesty. The Tension Has Been Increasing as the Failure of the Process Strategy with Pedro Sánchez's Government Became Evident.

The Situation Exploded Last Week When Rufián Pointed His Finger at the Junts Deputies. The Chamber Captured Míriam Nogueras and Her Colleagues Stoically Enduring the Downpour, but the Procession Was Internal. In Junts, They Believe It Was the Straw That Broke the Camel's Back of Their Patience, and They Consider Relations with the Republicans in Madrid Broken.

Junqueras and Puigdemont Already Have Their Casus Belli

For Junts, Gabriel Rufián Represents the Worst of Esquerra Both in Form and Content. They See Him as the "Bad Cop" of His Duo with Junqueras, and the One in Charge of Executing the Strategy of Submission to PSOE at Any Cost. Broad Sectors of Junts, and Puigdemont's Own Circle, See an Approach with ERC as Impossible While Rufián Continues to Lead the Party.

In ERC, the Junquerism Entrenched in Power Sees Míriam Nogueras as the Executor of the Rightward Shift Dictated by Puigdemont from Waterloo. This Suits Them to Fuel Their Theory of Junts' Approach to PP, and to Mark the Leftist Profile That Junqueras Wants. Which Offers the Ideal Pretext to Dodge the Unity and Prepare the Final Battle Between Oriol Junqueras and Carles Puigdemont.

In the Pro-Independence Movement, Everyone Knows That Unity Is a Chimera, but ERC and Junts Needed a Casus Belli to Go to War. Congress Was the Place Where They Had to Find a Space for Shared Struggles After Pedro Sánchez's Investiture. But It Has Ultimately Proven to Be the Scene of an Escalation of Tension That Transfers the New War to the Catalan Parliament.

The Upcoming War in Parliament

The ERC-PSC Partnership in Catalonia Presents the Ideal Opportunity for Junts to Launch an All-Out Attack Against Esquerra. But Their Isolation in Parliament and the Lack of Strong Leadership Prevent Greater Belligerence. Moreover, the Presence of Aliança Catalana Prevents Junts from Marking a More Right-Wing Profile as It Does in Congress.

Not to Mention, Junts Shares with ERC, Albeit Reluctantly, the Common Interest of the Sanitary Cordon Against Aliança Catalana. The Post-Convergents Want to First Neutralize the Orriolista Threat, and Then Annihilate ERC. But They Also Expect Something Else, Which Is the Return of Carles Puigdemont Restored by the Application of Amnesty.

The Return of Puigdemont to Physically Lead the Opposition Will Be the Starting Gun for the Final Battle in the War with ERC. Opposite Him Will Be Oriol Junqueras, Who for Now Remains in the Background Waiting for the Right Moment to Step onto the Scene. Meanwhile, He Continues to Weave from the Shadows the Leftward Shift of ERC That Will Inevitably Lead to the Ideological Clash with Junts.

Both Are Looking Ahead to the Generalitat Elections Scheduled for 2028. The Previous Year, the Municipal Elections Will Have Been Held, Key for ERC and Junts to Regain Strength in the Territory. Junqueras and Puigdemont Will Then Have the Final Duel They Desired, Provided Their Parties Are Still Standing.