New poll: PSOE plummets, PP and Vox dominate, and Aliança would enter Congress

The national political landscape has taken a turn. According to the latest poll conducted by Sociométrica for El Español, PSOE would fall below 100 seats for the first time, and Sumar would plummet to a merely symbolic figure. Meanwhile, PP and Vox would reach a combined 209 seats, very close to an absolute majority that would allow a coalition government or an investiture agreement without too many concessions.

In addition, Orriols would deliver a double surprise: She could enter Congress, but she herself states that they don't want to be in Madrid. This way, it is confirmed (again) that Junts can't stop AC's competition. Meanwhile, a clearly anti-procesisme separatism movement returns to the spotlight alongside the collapse of sanchismo.

"Frankenstein" falls apart

According to the poll data, Sánchez would go from the 122 seats won in 2023 to just 99, with 25% of the vote, dragged down by corruption scandals and the accumulated wear and tear in Government. Meanwhile, Sumar would be reduced to 8 seats, while Podemos, already separated from the Executive, would barely secure 3.

The left wing of Government, therefore, would lose more than 40 seats, marking a trend that's difficult to reverse. Sumar's case deserves special mention. As has been said since at least the last Galician and Basque regional elections, Sumar is a party on the verge of extinction. Thus, the palace maneuvers between Iglesias and Díaz end up canceling each other out.

In contrast, Feijóo's PP capitalizes on the discontent and rises to 153 seats, while Vox consolidates its position with 54 deputies, the best result in its history. These numbers would allow Feijóo to test his promise to govern alone. More specifically, he could seek an investiture agreement with Vox and govern without Abascal's ministers.

On the procesisme side, we find a flatline. Junts and ERC remain in the 7-seat range without major changes. However, this data is relative since the first speculations have already begun about Rufián's move to create a large "plurinational" coalition. So, both due to media impact and vote concentration, these figures would change if that coalition were to materialize.

Orriols arrives in Madrid

But the big surprise of the poll is the emergence of Aliança Catalana, which would gain representation in Congress (2 seats) if it decided to run in the general elections. Sílvia Orriols's party, which has focused its message on immigration and identity-based sovereignty, is thus consolidating itself as the new alternative within the separatism movement. That is, Junts has another front to be concerned about; in total, it has three: regional, municipal, and general elections.

However, Orriols has publicly ruled out a national candidacy. "Aliança is not a placement agency," Orriols wrote on social media. This strategy is very revealing of AC's political DNA and confirms that it is a clearly anti-procesisme separatism movement. In fact, it would be the only nationalist-peripheral party that would voluntarily give up being in Madrid.

This change in trend is also reflected in Catalonia. According to the latest CEO published in March, Aliança Catalana surges in voting intention in Parliament, going from 3 to a range of 9-10 deputies, while Junts sinks below 30. In short, post-procesisme is gradually taking shape alongside the collapse of sanchismo.