Support for Independence Falls by 10 Points in Eight Years, but the Pro-Independence Movement Continues to Govern

Separatism has hit rock bottom in Catalonia according to the latest survey by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) of the Generalitat. According to the barometer, only 38% of Catalans declare themselves in favor of separation, compared to 54% who are against it. Support for independence falls below 40% for the first time, recording its worst result since the start of the Procés in 2012.

The data is even more revealing if we look at 2017, the peak year of the procés when support for independence almost reached the desired 50%. Since then, in just eight years, separatism has gone from representing 48% to 38% of Catalan society.

These results reflect the exhaustion and frustration of Catalan society after a long decade of procés. But the social shift contrasts with institutional representation. Despite separatism falling ten points in eight years, ERC and Junts continue to pull the strings of politics both in Madrid and in Catalonia.

The Burden of Separatism

This reflects a perverse functioning of representative democracy in Spain and in Catalonia. The fate of millions of citizens remains in the hands of parties that represent a minority. It also shows that the procés parties remain influential only to the extent that they serve to keep a retreating left afloat.

This is seen not only in their ability to set the agenda with issues that no longer interest society. But also in the persistence of a way of governing that has condemned Catalonia to institutional paralysis and economic ruin.

By the end of March, neither the central Government, nor the Generalitat of Catalonia, nor the Barcelona City Council have budgets. Governing without budgets means fewer investments and less room to maneuver for making changes and improvements. The case of Catalonia is even more dramatic because the Govern has to negotiate with ERC and the Comuns for a credit supplement in exchange for concessions.

Moreover, ERC and Junts continue to condition the respective governments with the same rhetoric from ten years ago, as if nothing had happened. They continue to dangle the lure of a self-determination referendum and appeal to commonplaces like Spain is robbing us.

Catalonia Remains Tied to the Decline of the Procés

The case of the Rodalies chaos perfectly illustrates this perverse mechanism of functioning that guides the procés parties. They blame each other as if they hadn't governed in Catalonia in recent years. They blame Spain as if they weren't the ones who have been supporting the PSOE and Podemos-Sumar governments since 2019.

Meanwhile, Junts and ERC continue selling the fiction of independence to their voters, turning their backs on reality. Junts fuels the hope of Carles Puigdemont's return who, once amnestied, will unite all separatism to lead it to the promised land. Junqueras appeals to broadening the base and claims to have a plan for Catalonia to be independent in 2031.

While the procés parties cling to power building castles in the air, Catalans continue to suffer the consequences of their years in government. Sky-high housing, a mortgaged economy, lack of investments, excessive taxes, and decay and degradation everywhere. Catalonia has not only lost leadership but also the train of modernity.