The Grand Coalition, the Lifeline of the European Elite in Germany and Spain

Many expected the electoral debate in Germany to turn into a fierce fight between Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz. There was an exchange of blows on topics like taxes and immigration, but neither of them drew knives. Why?

Olaf Scholz is the representative of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which is heading into the elections with the threat of a historic setback. Friedrich Merz, leader of the CDU, clearly starts as the favorite but with the far-right breathing down his neck. The possibility of a center-right alliance with the anti-immigration party has sparked fear among the German and European establishment.

This explains the restraint with which the leaders of the two major parties faced each other last Sunday in the electoral debate. Both used a tough tone but always sought to keep the bridges intact for a possible post-election pact.

Brussels is pressuring Christian Democrats and Social Democrats to forge a grand agreement that saves the interests of the European elite.

Fear is growing. The latest polls are giving the CDU 30%, while the SPD fails to surpass 15%, and AfD is already growing to 22%. Parliamentary arithmetic drags Merz into an ultraconservative coalition, but it also influences the desire for alternation expressed by the Germans.

The SPD and the CDU to the Rescue of the System

The Christian Democrats are very critical of Scholz's government's work and believe that the left should be sent to the opposition. Merz himself defended his strategic alliance with the far-right on issues like immigration. Not to mention the recent reform of the immigration law to close borders and accelerate deportations.

The mere idea that Merz might end up making a pact with Alice Weidel, leader of AfD, has the European elite trembling. Their migration model would put the union's border policy against the ropes and open a conflict with other countries. Moreover, it is clear to everyone that AfD's program is a challenge to the 2030 agenda and the current bureaucratic model represented by the European establishment.

The bureaucrats breathed a little easier when Merz closed the door to a pact with AfD and extended a hand to an alliance with the SPD and the Greens. The current feeling is that the pressures from Brussels will end up working.

Now it only remains to see if the CDU-SPD alliance might end up boosting the vote for AfD. In the end, the shadow of an alliance between the two major parties reinforces AfD's image as the anti-establishment party of disgruntled Germans.

Will Feijóo Do a Merz?

What happens in Germany will greatly influence Spain's short- and medium-term future.

An ultraconservative alliance would reinforce Pedro Sánchez's role as the great bastion against the far-right in Europe. But if Scholz and Merz reach an agreement, the pressures from Brussels for a Grand Coalition in Spain will increase.

Especially on Alberto Núñez Feijóo, who, if he wins the elections, will have to decide whether to go with Vox or approach the PSOE. As long as Pedro Sánchez remains in charge of the PSOE, the operation will be practically unfeasible. But if there is an electoral debacle and Sánchez is dethroned or severely weakened, a PSOE-PP pact will be more feasible.

Meanwhile, Vox continues to rise in the polls in the same way that AfD does in Germany.

Here, PSOE and PP are also identified as parts of the same bureaucratic system serving the European elite. In fact, in Spain, the distance between the center-right (PP) and the radical right (Vox) is greater than in Germany.

The elections on February 23 in Germany will mark a turning point. Also in Spain.