Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras, Two Leaders in Trouble with Less and Less Support

The Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) published a new barometer on the political situation in Catalonia last Thursday. The most talked-about aspect has been the debacle of Junts and the rise of Aliança Catalana. However, there are other data that have gone unnoticed, which help to understand the tectonic changes taking place in the Catalan political scene.

In a system like the Catalan one, which is heavily marked by personalism, the part of the survey dedicated to the evaluation of party leaders is striking. Particularly of Carles Puigdemont and Oriol Junqueras, recently chosen to lead Junts and ERC in this new stage. The CEO survey confirms the decline of both.

The president of Junts is the fifth best-rated, with a score of 3.4 and an approval rating of 36%. The former president of the Generalitat assumed the presidency with the ambition to relaunch his party and unite the separatism movement under his leadership. But his popularity is increasingly affected, worsening the results of the latest surveys.

In the barometer prior to the May 2024 elections, he obtained a score of 4.1 and an approval rating of 47%. In the July survey, after the elections, his score fell to 3.9 and his approval to 43%. In the latest survey, published on November 27, he received a score of 3.5 and an approval rating of 38%.

The Reasons for Puigdemont's Decline

This is bad news for Carles Puigdemont, who sees his star fading just on the eve of the possible application of amnesty. PSOE has proposed the possibility that the former president receives amnesty and can return to Catalonia before summer. But he risks returning at his worst moment, especially criticized for his latest decisions.

Several factors explain Puigdemont's decline, such as the widespread discredit of the pro-separatism parties and their leaders, whom the separatism movement sees as traitors. But in his case, the wear and tear of Pedro Sánchez's investiture agreement is added. Puigdemont has quickly gone from being a messiah of the separatism movement to a partner of the socialists, and this is clearly taking a toll on him.

But there is also the poor management of the Consell de la República and the Toni Comín case, which cast a shadow of authoritarianism and corruption over him. Puigdemont is also losing followers in his confrontation with Sílvia Orriols. Finally, there is the liquidation of the borrasista sector within Junts, which has made him lose more support in the more separatist sectors of Junts's orbit.

Oriol Junqueras, Not Even with the CEO in His Favor

The results are equally dramatic for the leader of ERC. If before last year's elections he had a score of 5.2 and an approval rating of 63%, now he is rated with a 4.6 and a 54% approval. He remains the best-rated leader behind Salvador Illa and ahead of Jéssica Albiach, but his support is also falling.

In his case, the results should be taken with a grain of salt, especially those from last year when the CEO was in the hands of ERC. The director of the organization at the time, Jordi Muñoz, was heavily criticized for inflating the surveys before the elections. Hence the contrast between the 63% approval that the CEO gave him and the Republicans' crash in the elections.

Now the CEO is in the hands of a socialist, and it is likely to be more 'friendly' with Illa's partners than with his rivals. But Junqueras is unable to take off even with the CEO in his favor. Behind his discredit is the erratic strategy at the helm of this new stage.

The president of ERC is questioned even within his own party, which he has led almost to the brink of a split. His decline is also evidenced by the wear and tear of his lieutenant in Madrid, Gabriel Rufián, who is probably the most hated within ERC. The surveys make it clear that the fall of ERC and Junts is related to the decline of Junqueras and Puigdemont.