Sweden, from Model of Prosperity to Criminal Paradise: Could It Happen in Catalonia?

Thirty years ago, Sweden created the illusion that economic prosperity, freedom, and equality could create a perpetual state of citizen security. But complacency and naivety shattered that dream. In just a few years, it has gone from being among the safest places in Europe to leading the crime rates of developed countries in the world.

In the year 2000, Sweden was ranked 18th out of 22 European countries in firearm deaths. The country recorded two deaths per million inhabitants, almost two points below the European average.

But things started to go wrong in the first decade of the 2000s, and by 2017 the indicators had doubled. While firearm deaths were decreasing in Europe, they were skyrocketing in Sweden. Sweden went from 18th place to second place, only behind Croatia.

What Has Happened in Sweden?

Several factors contributed to this deterioration, but the migration challenge has been clearly decisive. The Refugee Council placed Sweden as the ninth country in the world with the most asylum seekers per capita in the last fifteen years. Between 2010 and 2020, it was the European country that welcomed the most, equivalent to 2.7% of its population.

Today, one-fifth of the Swedish population was born abroad and already includes hundreds of thousands of second-generation immigrants. Beyond the numbers, Sweden has had a serious integration problem. Most of these immigrants live in segregated areas, do not speak the local language, and have great difficulty integrating into the labor market.

The result has been the emergence of pockets of poverty in the outskirts of major cities, which have gradually become lawless areas. In parallel, the entry of illegal weapons through the Balkan route increased. Suddenly, the country had ghettos that the state was unable to control, and a large contingent of firearms out of control.

The creation of these spaces of impunity with a discretionary supply of weapons attracted international organized crime gangs. They began to compete for merchandise and territory, increasingly with more violence. These gangs often use foreign minors to circumvent the law, but their inexperience leads them to make mistakes, and several civilians have already died.

In short, in Sweden, the increase in violence is related to the proliferation of drug trafficking in socioeconomically depressed and lawless areas. Something similar is happening in Catalonia.

Could Catalonia End Up Like Sweden?

In Catalonia, the rise in conventional crime (thefts, assaults, fights...) coincides with an increase in mafia activity. Here, the origin has been clearly the proliferation of marijuana cultivation and trafficking. This has been favored by the naivety and permissiveness of public authorities in recent years.

As in Sweden, in Catalonia, there has been a conscious promotion of immigration that has been concentrated in ghettos on the outskirts of major cities. The emergence of lawless areas and the increase in firearms have paved the way for the growth of criminal gangs. The struggle for merchandise and territory has triggered violence in recent months.

In 2024, shootings increased by 23% and 445 firearms were seized. 2025 is on track for a record. Catalonia is following the path of Sweden, where authorities have already said it will take at least a decade to regain control of the situation.