CEO Survey: PSC Improves, Junts Continues to Decline and Aliança Catalana Soars

The PSC will allegedly win the elections again with a comfortable majority, the pro-independence movement would continue losing votes, and Aliança Catalana would skyrocket if elections were held today for Parliament. These are the results of this third's survey by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) of the Generalitat. Sílvia Orriols's party continues to be the fastest-growing party since the last Catalan elections on May 12, 2024.

The PSC, which won the elections with 42 deputies, leads the survey again with a range of 41-43 deputies. The socialists have significantly improved the results of the last CEO on November 27, when they fell to 39-41 deputies.

Junts continues to be the party that is sinking the most. Carles Puigdemont's party, which secured 35 deputies in the last elections, drops from 30-32 to 27-29 in just four months. In a year, they would be losing almost ten deputies according to the surveys.

The decline of Junts coincides with the rise of Aliança Catalana, the expectations of which now soars to 10 deputies. Sílvia Orriols's party, which now has 3 deputies, rose to 6-7 in the November survey. According to this latest poll, Junts would lose up to 8 deputies, while Aliança Catalana could gain up to 7.

Illa's Partners Remain

The good news for Salvador Illa is that, according to the CEO, his parliamentary majority has not been affected in these first months of government. ERC, which now has 20 deputies, would rise to 21-23. The Comuns, who have 6 deputies, remain in a range of 6-7.

Both PSC, ERC, and the Comuns have barely experienced variations in the surveys this past year. This reinforces the confidence of the government and its partners at the halfway point of the first year of the legislature. However, there are some changes in the opposition.

The fall of Junts coincides with the consolidation of the non-separatist right, which has barely experienced variations compared to the last elections and the November CEO. The PP, with 15 deputies in Parliament, is now in a range of 14-16. Vox, with 11 seats, would now have between 10 and 12.

The CUP would remain the same, with 4 deputies, or lose one. It worsens compared to the last CEO poll, which gave it between 5 and 6 deputies, now between 3 and 4.

Only 38% Pro-Independence

This new poll makes clear the immobility of blocs that jeopardizes the formation of majorities in Catalonia.

The pro-independence movement (Junts-ERC-CUP) would add up to 56 deputies at best, far from the majority of 68. Not even a hypothetical addition with Aliança Catalana would be enough to reach that majority. The constitutionalist bloc still doesn't have a sufficient majority to break the pro-independence bloc and challenge Illa's majority.

The only majority that adds up according to the new polls is the one currently in the Government, which could even improve its expectations.

The CEO survey, on the other hand, once again sinks the pro-independence movement. Only 38% of respondents declare themselves pro-independence compared to 54% who do not. These are the worst results for the pro-independence movement since this question has been asked in the survey, that is, since 2015.