Supporters of More Security and Less Immigration Near 40 Seats in Catalonia

The Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) of the Generalitat published last Thursday, March 27, the new survey on voting intention in Catalonia. The most talked about has been the collapse of Junts in parallel with the exponential growth of Aliança Catalana. But there is another interpretation that is being discussed less, despite also being very striking.

The barometer shows a consolidation of the government coalition (PSC, ERC, and Comuns). This is not surprising, considering the CEO's bias. Salvador Illa appointed Joan Rodríguez Teruel, a former socialist councilor and advisor to the governments of Pasqual Maragall and José Montilla, to lead the organization.

More surprising are the results given to PP, Vox, and Aliança Catalana. The upper range gives PP up to 16 deputies, 12 to Vox, and 10 to Aliança Catalana. The three parties that unapologetically advocate for more security and less immigration could reach 38 deputies if we trust this survey.

The Sanitary Cordon Dissolves

The first interpretation is that the sanitary cordon of PSC, Junts, ERC, Comuns, and CUP not only doesn't work but has the opposite effect. The function of the sanitary cordon is to prevent legislative action by these parties. But by doing so, they show that they are losing control of the narrative and therefore want to impose it by force.

PP, Vox, and AC also don't have enough weight to influence legislative action, so the sanitary cordon is useless in this case. But they can present motions and try to create a state of opinion, and this is what they are achieving. In this sense, the sanitary cordon amplifies the voice of these parties instead of silencing it.

The other interpretation is that security and immigration are becoming the main concern of Catalans. In the 2021 elections, PP and Vox had 14 seats, and Aliança Catalana didn't even run. Four years later, the three parties together have 28, and the surveys give them a growth of 10 more deputies.

The Strategy of These Parties

Their growth could be even greater if we consider the bias of this survey conducted by the organization dependent on the Generalitat. If the right-wing and radical right-wing parties approach the threshold of 50 deputies, the political shift in Catalonia would indeed be a reality. However, for this to happen, these parties must also overcome their own difficulties.

In the case of PP and Vox, their main handicap is the competition between themselves for the same space, which has an obvious limitation. The constitutionalist right in Catalonia will hardly be able to break a ceiling that is also lower due to the rightward shift of PSC. PP tries to focus on security and squatting, while Vox focuses on immigration and Islamization.

Both try to compete without harming each other and focusing on the wear and tear of PSC. Vox is carrying out a clear strategy of hitting the streets, going to the neighborhoods most affected by migratory saturation and insecurity. PP tries to combine its more forceful discourse with a more institutional profile, taking advantage of its leader's charisma.

Aliança Catalana has it easier to grow because it doesn't have such clear competition, and its rise is fueled by the collapse of the separatism movement. Its main handicap is the isolation that prevents them from being decisive in Parliament. But on the other hand, they have the loudspeaker of Ripoll, and they know that the upcoming municipal elections in 2027 will be key to not stagnating.

Have They Hit the Ceiling or Will They Keep Growing?

With their nuances, PP, Vox, and AC agree in criticizing the degradation of Catalonia after successive separatism governments. Governments that have been in the hands of the most woke left, which they blame for this degradation. Their programs focus on crime, squatting, the tax hell, public and subsidized media, massive illegal immigration, and the collapse of public services.

Their initial success has been breaking the taboo on issues that until recently were hijacked by the official narrative imposed by the left. However, if they don't manage to grow and stagnate, they risk dying in the attempt. The wave of social indignation in Catalonia seems to be in their favor, and the CEO's data is a new sign that something is changing.

The question is whether PP and Vox will be able to erode PSC's space and grow without overshadowing each other. Time will tell if indeed the space of the constitutional right in Catalonia has hit the ceiling, or if they have room to grow. Also, if Aliança Catalana is capable of definitively sinking the separatism movement, starting by taking away local power in 2027.