ERC's media environment is already proposing Rufián as a candidate for the Generalitat

"The useful antifascist vote, that's what the upcoming elections will be about," Eduard Voltas said in an opinion piece in Nació, a regular platform for ERC. His basic thesis is that, within the realm of antifascism, Rufián is the figure with the most value and potential. According to Voltas, Rufián has enough projection to even run for president of the Generalitat.

This reveals something that many, both inside and outside ERC, had already pointed out: that Rufián is a figure with a life of his own. Forged in media polarization from Madrid, and the main representative of the Junqueras strategy of a "social" separatism movement, Rufián is a category of his own within ERC. This explains why he also has one foot in that undefined galaxy of the sovereignist and plurinational left.

In Voltas's view, who for all intents and purposes buys into ERC's strategy, Rufián looks at Catalonia from the periphery. This, Voltas says, marks a difference with Junts, which relies on a traditional vote from Catalan-speaking families. In short, we're still in the processist framework of "broadening the base" and bringing the separatism movement to the peripheral and socialist neighborhoods.

In this sense, what Voltas is saying is that there's room to update this strategy, which has clearly been a failure. The update would involve moving past figures like Puigdemont and Junqueras, and taking advantage of Rufián's media influence. "With Puigdemont speaking only to the hard core and saying that PP and PSOE are the same, and with Junqueras disqualified and adrift, Rufián is the only pro-separatism politician who can run in an election presenting himself as the useful antifascist vote," Voltas says.

Next step

Setting aside the fact that this is a trial balloon from ERC's media environment, the most revealing aspect is the appeal to antifascism. It shows that the left—ERC in this case—still believes in the strategy of fear through polarization. In other words: their electoral decline still doesn't drive them to a deep change in strategy. It's enough to see that their renewal has been to put Junqueras in again.

Finally, all this vagueness around the "antifascist vote" connects Rufián with Podemos, Bildu, and BNG. For now, all these parties are under the Sanchista wing, but it's clear that they're already preparing for a PP-VOX context. The question is whether the most decisive factors in society (housing, insecurity, immigration) will deactivate this antifascist strategy.

Meanwhile, Rufián lets himself be courted in silence and does what he does best: boosting his media profile, whether in confrontation with Vox or with Luis Figo. For now, he can claim the success of having survived the separatism moment (the 18 months) and the Sanchista moment. Ultimately, he's a very refined example of partitocracy, whether Spanish or processist.