Vox, in search of the formula for success

Vox takes advantage of its international relationships and has intensified contacts with right-wing parties in Europe to replicate their winning strategies. After the recent elections in Portugal, Austria, and France, the party led by Santiago Abascal seeks to learn from its European partners. Among them are Chega, the Portuguese party, Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National, and Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia. This clearly shows that the new global right acts with a joint strategic sense.

These meetings focus on key issues such as immigration and the breakdown of bipartisanship. Vox aims to mobilize the electorate with a message that has already succeeded in other countries. In Portugal, for example, Chega achieved 23.1% of the votes, increasing by more than four points in less than a year. In Austria, Herbert Kickl's party was the most voted with 28.9%. In France, Le Pen achieved a historic result in the June 2024 elections.

sovereignty and youth

All these parties are aware that, with the failure of the alternative left over the past ten years, a huge gap of frustration has emerged. More specifically, we are facing a very delicate sociopolitical combination. It is the synthesis of a widespread loss of purchasing power and high migratory pressure, which overwhelms the administrative structure.

In this regard, Vox's strategy has been clear from the beginning: keep a single message over time. Since its inception, the party has opted for a message that appeals to patriotism in the face of globalism as the framework to relaunch sovereign nations. In addition, Vox capitalizes on the abandonment of youth by the system, who are clearly the most affected by economic inequality.

The party has gained significant ground among young people, a group traditionally more progressive. According to polling data, Vox increased its support among young voters by 21%. This is a phenomenon similar to what is seen with other right-wing leaders in Europe and Latin America, such as Le Pen or Milei. Abascal promotes the idea that the right is now a "punk" option for new generations.

good electoral prospects

The latest polls support this trend. The most recent surveys by La Vanguardia and 20 Minutos place Vox as the third political force in Spain. Its support ranges between 12% and 14%, figures similar to those obtained in the 2023 elections. These polls also indicate that, together with Partido Popular, Vox could reach an absolute majority in a general election.

Partido Popular, led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, keeps its position as the leading force with between 34% and 36% of the vote. However, it would need Vox to form a government. The relationship between the two parties thus becomes key for political stability. Although there were misgivings in the past, Vox's electoral growth makes agreements increasingly inevitable.

This political situation strengthens Vox as a decisive player. The party has survived the disappearance of other parties outside bipartisanship. In addition, Abascal has shown stability in the face of political volatility (the breakdown of regional governments due to the distribution of "menas," for example). Furthermore, it is undeniable that the movement of the Overton window on several issues (security, for example) favors Abascal.

Ultimately, Vox works to consolidate its electoral success and keep a growing influence over Feijóo. Its strategy combines the observation of European models with its own message that appeals to a discontented sector. The big question is what kind of European Union will emerge from sovereign national governments.