CIS poll: Sílvia Orriols, favorite to lead the Generalitat behind Illa

In just one year as a member of Parliament, Sílvia Orriols has established herself as the trendiest politician in Catalonia. Her unique style and lack of inhibitions have made her the voice of what many Catalans want to hear. She has also managed to present herself as an outsider facing off against the Catalan political and media establishment. 

Polls have long indicated a rise of the separatist and anti-immigration party, mainly at the expense of Junts. A new CIS poll confirms the party's upward trend, and especially that of its leader.

The Center for Sociological Research (CIS) published a voting intention poll in Catalonia this week. The poll was conducted in March, before the Santos Cerdán scandal broke out in PSOE. According to the survey, PSC would clearly win the elections with three more points than in 2024.

But the results also show a collapse of the separatist process movement, and especially of Junts. This is nothing new. The latest polls already showed Carles Puigdemont's party as the one losing the most votes in Catalonia.

What is new is that for the first time, Sílvia Orriols surpasses Carles Puigdemont as the favorite to lead the Generalitat. In fact, the mayor of Ripoll is the second favorite, only behind Salvador Illa himself.

The poll shows that 51% of Catalans want Salvador Illa out. At the same time, there is a huge gap between Illa and the rest of the candidates. PSC's secretary general receives 25.9% support, while his closest challenger, Sílvia Orriols, stands at 3.9%.

Orriols herself joked about this figure, saying, "I only have to make up 22.1 points and we'd have it." 

Sílvia Orriols has overtaken Puigdemont, who is now third with 3.1%. Oriol Junqueras follows, although Alejandro Fernández is just one point away from surpassing him. Ignacio Garriga comes next, and at the bottom are Laia Estrada and Jéssica Albiach.

The results show that the left and separatist process parties' cordon sanitaire against Aliança Catalana hasn't worked. In the era of social media and amid a full swing of the ideological pendulum, censorship usually works counterproductively. Despite the interruptions and warnings from Parliament president Josep Rull, her speeches are the ones that have the most impact on social media.

Aliança Catalana is in the midst of territorial expansion, something that will be very important to aim for more in the upcoming Catalan elections. Mobilizing the grassroots will be essential to consolidate the project beyond the "Orriols effect." The importance of the current need for a new leader for the separatist movement shouldn't be underestimated.