Puigdemont's strategy in Madrid prevents Junts from leading the opposition in Catalonia.

Carles Puigdemont's strategy when making a deal with PSOE was risky, among other things, because it forced Junts to be partners with the socialists in Madrid and opposition in Catalonia. It's true that when Puigdemont invested Sánchez Illa, he wasn't president yet. However, Junts and PSC were already competing for the Generalitat at that time, and it's clear that Waterloo's deal-making strategy hasn't worked.

Junts is the second largest party in the Catalan chamber and, as such, should lead the opposition. However, Carles Puigdemont's absence puts the weight on a leader like Albert Batet. In fact, over these months, the party has been giving way to other, more incisive figures like Salvador Vergés.

Beyond the profiles, it's clear that Junts in Catalonia has a strategic problem stemming from Puigdemont's agreements with PSOE.

Junts leaves the lane open to PP, Vox, and AC

Until now, the argument was that Junts was doing more for Catalans than Govern itself, thanks to the concessions extracted from President Pedro Sánchez. However, PSOE's crisis over the Santos Cerdán corruption scheme has shown Junts's weakness in the opposition.

Right when it would be necessary to be tougher on Salvador Illa, Junts has had to step aside. Albert Batet's group has avoided direct confrontation with Govern and has left the way open to PP, Vox, and Aliança Catalana.

These parties have raised the tone against Salvador Illa, while Junts is fading away like a sugar cube. Alejandro Fernández's PP has insisted on linking Salvador Illa to the Koldo and Cerdán scheme. Vox acts like a steamroller on issues such as corruption, security, and education, and Sílvia Orriols keeps growing by denouncing the pro-separatism establishment.

Faced with this harsh tone, Junts's group finds itself disarmed because their entire strategy depends on what happens in Madrid. They can't be too tough on Illa because the priority is to keep supporting President Pedro Sánchez's government. 

All for the amnesty for Puigdemont

The main reason for this is that Junts's entire deal-making strategy has been aimed at politically saving Carles Puigdemont.

Waterloo needs to keep Sánchez alive until Puigdemont returns to Catalonia and can personally lead the opposition to Illa. This leads to a unique contradiction: in Catalonia, the corruption affecting the governing party makes the main opposition party uncomfortable.

This only further highlights the failure of Carles Puigdemont's strategy, which could end up paying too high a price for the amnesty. At this rate, and judging by the polls, when he returns to Catalonia, he'll do so as president of a sinking party.

But that's not the worst part, since as the failure of his strategy is being proven, he's losing support within his own party. There's an ever-growing distance between the party's mid-level structures and the politburo formed by Puigdemont, Turull, and Nogueras. Discontent toward Puigdemont is growing, as he's been internally questioned for some time due to his direction.  

For now, those who are smiling are the right, who are consolidating as the main alternative to Salvador Illa's project. Junts risks being diluted in a centrist space that no longer exists. Things aren't looking good at all in Waterloo; we'll see how things develop.