Sign now and pay later: PSC's strategy with ERC

With short legislatures, whoever controls the short game controls the match. At this point, the socialists—both PSOE and PSC—are the paradigmatic example. The proof is that, despite everything, they have more power than ever, starting with Moncloa and ending with Palau.

The success of this strategy is also explained by the weakness of their partners, something that is often overlooked. It should not be forgotten that ERC and Comuns are coming off their worst electoral results. Once again, there is irrefutable proof: republicans and comuns did everything possible to avoid a repeat election.

However, this doesn't mean that the partners do not keep a tough—sometimes implausible—public profile. Regarding singular financing, for example, Marta Rovira even said it was an ERC strategy to move closer to separatism. The truth is that these are just power games dressed up in grand words, equally grand concessions, and handshakes.

If we make a list of all the socialist concessions, we can see the magnitude of the confusion. Catalan in Europe, transfer of Rodalies, Catalan treasury, immigration powers, countless dialogue tables, amnesty, etc. With so many open fronts, the possibility that PSOE will fulfill on time and as agreed is almost zero.

However, the most relevant aspect of this situation is that PSOE and PSC are making it work, and it works very well for them. The key lies in time management. While the partners need big headlines to reverse their electoral decline, the socialists need many short periods of time. This way, the periods accumulate, generating real stability.

The latest example on the table is ERC's singular financing; moreover, it is a particularly revealing example. In principle, PSC should have presented the entire structure of singular financing yesterday. But an accumulation of nuances, small problems, and unforeseen circumstances have confirmed the obvious. That is, PSC did not present anything yesterday.

June 30? "It doesn't matter" if it's later

When the legislature began in Catalonia, PSC promised that deadlines would be respected. Evidently, this was a smokescreen whose sole intention was to secure ERC's support. The Economy Minister, Alícia Romero, assured in La Vanguardia that the deadlines were clear. "In the first half of 2025, we'll have the singular financing model defined, and in 2026, we'll collect income from Catalonia":

Given that this has not been respected, it is now that the machinery of nuances from PSOE/PSC is set in motion. The Finance Minister said in an interview with El Correo de Andalucía in recent days that "it doesn't matter" if it is June 30 or later. The minister argued that this is a "difficult" matter that requires majorities in Congress.

Another example: faced with this situation, ERC says they will not approve PSC's budget. If Salvador Illa initially presented himself as the champion of good management and institutional stability, now he is already hinting that it is not a problem if there is no budget. That is, a pure copy of Sánchez, as Marcos Lamelas points out for El Confidencial.

Months that turn into legislatures

Parallel to this, we have the PSOE corruption bomb, the change of interlocutor in ERC (Salvadó replaces Jové), and the confrontation with Trump if necessary. All this justifies the extension of deadlines. Not to mention the famous "group of experts." That was one of Minister Romero's greatest tricks, who referred all the problems that foreshadowed the impossibility of having singular financing in June to that group.

Among these problems, there are some very prosaic ones that confirm that everyone knew the Catalan treasury was not viable. For example, the lack of personnel; with 830 workers, it was materially impossible for Catalonia to collect the IRPF. These kinds of minor details add up month after month, which ultimately coincide with the length of a legislature.

Finally, the other major factor that explains this whole situation is that ERC can't afford to bring down the Govern. As was already reported in E-Notícies last November, for ERC this was a legislature of appearances while they stitched the party together and looked for a project. The cotton doesn't lie: if ERC doesn't bring down the Govern, singular financing will remain a poker table. There is time until 2027 to deal the cards.