Salvador Illa, increasingly alone amid the 'Sanchismo' crisis

The increase in internal pressure within PSOE to call early elections leaves Salvador Illa as the only regional leader loyal to Moncloa's strategy. The Catalan president faces a considerable challenge this Friday. He will have to defend the unique financing model at a Conference of Presidents that has become a trap for PSOE.

PP threatened to boycott the meeting if the Government didn't agree to include their topics on the agenda. Among them is the unique financing model, the main point of friction between Illa and the other socialist leaders.

PSC has turned the conflict into an opportunity. Salvador Illa stated yesterday in Parliament his intention to "defend" his agreement with ERC at the Conference of Presidents to be held this Friday in Barcelona. This way, he kills two birds with one stone. On one hand, he relieves PP's pressure on President Pedro Sánchez, and on the other, he pleases his partners by showing his commitment to the unique financing model.

This disrupts Govern's plan, which first wanted to finalize the details of the agreement with the Government and then present it at the bilateral table with Generalitat. All of this comes ahead of the June 30 deadline set by ERC. In the end, PSC has given in to PP's demands and will use the opportunity to once again defend the benefits of the new regional financing system.

Illa, alone under pressure from the leaders

This mess has revealed something else: Salvador Illa is increasingly alone in PSOE's internal crisis. The President of Generalitat is being held hostage by Moncloa's strategy. Moreover, he finds himself trapped between PSOE's crisis in Madrid and the turbulent Catalan political scene.

Salvador Illa has long been the last stronghold of Sanchismo in the regions. The current crisis in President Pedro Sánchez's Government has worsened his difficult position. While socialist heavyweights like Miguel Lambán and Emiliano García-Page are calling for early elections, Illa strictly follows Moncloa's orders to keep Sánchez in power.

The problem is that Illa, who polls favor in Catalonia, could end up being harmed by Moncloa's strategy. This is especially true regarding the timeline of the imminent electoral cycle. PSC could end up paying the price for President Pedro Sánchez's actions.

First come the Andalusian elections (summer 2026), then the regional, municipal, and general elections (2027), and finally the Catalan elections (2028). In other words, Catalonia will close a new electoral cycle that looks very bleak for the socialists. Despite PSC's good prospects, it's hard to believe that another debacle in the regions and in the general elections wouldn't influence the Catalan elections.

Illa's future in PSOE's hands

Moncloa and Palau are two umbilical cords joined, among other things, by the alliance of the socialists with ERC and Comuns. Polls so far make it clear that Sánchez won't be able to repeat his majority, mainly due to Sumar's collapse. In Catalonia, Illa's fate also hangs by a thread because of his partners' decline.

But the burden isn't just electoral, it's also ideological. Following Sanchismo has led Illa to tie himself to partners who are dragging his government to the left. This has prevented him from implementing his initial strategy, which was based on opening up a broad centrist space to achieve major agreements in Catalonia.

By becoming a hostage of Sanchismo, Salvador Illa has had to give up the "Govern de tothom" to hand himself over to ERC, Comuns, and even CUP. Thus, instead of turning the page after a decade of processism, he has once again left Catalan politics in the hands of a minority. The same minority that has directly or indirectly governed Catalonia in recent years.

There's one last possible twist. If President Pedro Sánchez ends up being forced to resign after losing the 2027 elections, Sanchismo could propose Illa as his successor. If PSC holds on in Catalonia, Sánchez's project could have one last chance to survive.