Oriol Junqueras, Green Light for His Plans in ERC

ERC held the first phase of its refounding congress in November, consisting of the vote for the new leadership. The party faces the second phase of the congress next weekend, consisting of the debate and vote on the proposals. These will decide the ideological orientation and the party model for the coming years.

After Oriol Junqueras's reelection, the Rovirists and the Octobrists promised to fight to prevent the culmination of the Junquerist plans. But hours before the congress, it seems they are acknowledging their weakness and are backing down from direct confrontation.

Joan Tardà, the Best Positioned

Oriol Junqueras will have a free hand to impose his plans to open the party beyond independence. Nova Esquerra Nacional and Foc Nou continue with their intention to establish themselves as factions within the party. But they neither have the determination to form a split nor the sufficient weight to influence the leadership's decisions.

In fact, the best-positioned faction for next weekend's congress seems to be Joan Tardà's, an ally of Junqueras. His proposal is to make independence the end goal and social policies the means to achieve it. This involves opening the party to non-strictly independentist leftists and even exploring a broad progressive front with Comuns and the CUP.

The ideological orientation will mark one of the crucial proposals of the congress, but equally important will be the statutory proposal. In it, the party model will be debated, which Oriol Junqueras wants to link to the significance of his leadership.

Truce Before the Congress

Nova Esquerra Nacional announced its intention to present amendments to limit Oriol Junqueras's power. One of them aimed to limit the presidency's term to 2029, against Junqueras's intention to perpetuate his power until 2040. The other amendment sought to prohibit organizational positions (presidency and general secretariat) from running in the Generalitat elections.

Nova Esquerra Nacional and Militància Decidim have reached an agreement for the Rovirists to withdraw the amendments. In exchange, the Junquerists have agreed to hold a major national debate later to solve these issues.

Additionally, Oriol Junqueras has also reached significant agreements with the alternative candidacy Foc Nou on issues such as language. The new leadership thus accepts one of the main proposals of the critical radical independence faction. Junqueras commits to defending Catalan as the only official language in Catalonia.

The alternative factions thus sign a truce with the national leadership just before the congress, and it seems Junqueras will have a smooth path. This increases the risk of more defections from activists and voters disenchanted with the party's direction.

This is the great paradox of Junqueras's ERC. While the president gradually achieves unity with the rest of the factions, underneath there is an unstoppable exodus that could accelerate the party's decomposition process.