New poll in Catalonia: Puigdemont plummets, Aliança Catalana skyrockets

Carles Puigdemont continues in free fall. This is indicated by the demographic survey commissioned by a political party in Catalonia, whose results have been exclusively revealed by The Objective. The survey points to a new collapse of the pro-independence parties, but especially Junts, which could lose up to eight deputies.

These results confirm the negative trend of Junts reflected in the latest surveys by the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió. Carles Puigdemont is not achieving the desired effect with his return to the party presidency. His formation is suffering from competition with Aliança Catalana, which is soaring in the polls at the expense of the pro-independence movement.

The erratic strategy of Junts, which constantly navigates in indecision, doesn't help either. The survey adds more nerves to the leadership of Junts. Their attempt to present themselves as an alternative to PSC is fading, and there is less and less time left for the municipal elections of 2027 and the regional elections of 2028.

Tripartite or sociovergencia?

The results come from an internal survey conducted by a party with representation in Parliament, and carried out on a thousand people. PSC would increase its distance over its pursuers, and especially over Junts.

The socialists would go from 42 to 43/45 deputies, while Junts would drop from 35 to 27/29. The distance would increase from seven to 16 seats. But the collapse of their government partners would leave the legislature in the air.

ERC would go from 20 to 17/19 deputies, while Comuns would drop from 6 to 4/5. In the worst-case scenario, the PSC-ERC-Comuns alliance would be four seats short of an absolute majority. Since CUP would only have three deputies and the rest of the parties are antagonistic, it would lead the legislature to a deadlock and electoral repetition.

At the upper end of the range, PSC's 45 deputies would be enough to add with ERC and Comuns. The results would open the door to another winning formula, sociovergencia, which would add between 70 and 74 deputies.

Collapse of the "Puigdemont effect"

Another interesting aspect is the reconfiguration of the constitutionalist (PP and Vox) and pro-independence (AC) opposition. PP, which now has 15 deputies, would repeat the result or grow to 17. Vox would go from 11 to 13/15 seats, so between them, they could go from 26 to a maximum of 32 representatives.

The survey confirms the rise of the "Orriols effect" to the detriment of the "Puigdemont effect." While the pro-independence parties (ERC, Junts, CUP) would lose between 8 and 13 deputies, Aliança Catalana would go from 2 to 8/9 representatives.

In short, the survey shows the collapse of the "Puigdemont effect," which is not managing to relaunch Junts's project with its shift to the right. It also shows the consolidation of PSC as the hegemonic party in Catalonia, covering a large center space that the rest of the parties have left free. Finally, it confirms the stagnation of the blocks that throw Catalonia into a permanent deadlock in the difficult post-procés stage.