The New Cycle of Psoe That Begins This Sunday

Nothing is the same after elections, but defeat always has more serious consequences. In Ferraz, they know this well and await with tense calm results that could mark a turning point. Although no one says it out loud, there is a sense of being on the verge of Pedro Sánchez's definitive farewell.

Since the call for early elections, the candidate for reelection has tried to convey optimism among his supporters.

Sánchez is used to swimming against the tide, but this time is different. The reality is that in PSOE, discouragement and apathy have been spreading for some time. The distance between the barons and the secretary-general is increasingly greater, but there is no clear alternative and everyone chooses to remain silent.

The snub from everyone except Salvador Illa at the last extraordinary congress already evidenced the leader's solitude. They say he advanced the elections precisely to avoid the noise of sabers within his party. Now, his only way out is a miraculous victory or a narrow defeat.

Sánchez has framed these elections as a plebiscite on his leadership within the party and has bet everything. So for better or worse, it is evident that he faces decisive hours for him.

PSOE Seeks New Leaders

In the worst-case scenario, a severe defeat would give wings to the barons who are calling for an imminent congress to begin the renewal. These will be difficult days for the party. The replacement of heavyweights like García-Page, Javier Lambán, and Ximo Puig opens a complex process in the midst of a power vacuum.

In the party, they tacitly acknowledge that the consequences of this renewal are entirely uncertain. There isn't even a clear alternative to Pedro Sánchez. In the party, they are clear that the new leadership must fall to a woman, and the candidates include María Jesús Montero, Pilar Alegría, and Isabel Rodríguez.

Options like the continuity line of Salvador Illa or, although less likely, the return of Susana Díaz are also being considered. It is also not ruled out that an unknown candidate might emerge, as happened with Zapatero. In any case, the big beneficiary will be Feijóo, who will be able to govern with the opposition going through a long desert crossing.

Sánchez Wants to Hold On

PSOE's victory seems ruled out, and even further away is the possibility of reissuing a left-wing majority. In light of this, a narrow defeat would be the lesser evil. Like Felipe González in 1996, Sánchez could remain at the helm of the party a while longer to steer his succession.

The socialist candidate is clear that if PP and Vox don't add up, he won't facilitate Feijóo's investiture. The political deadlock and the repetition of elections benefit him because he would remain as acting president and gain time. He could wait from his position of power to see how the right-wing wears out.

All situations are possible, but all, sooner or later, lead to Sánchez's farewell. The most pessimistic see a conservative wave for years in Spain, with a PSOE without leaders and without regional power. The most optimistic see a PSOE recovering from a constructive opposition toward PP and against Vox.

Goodbye to Sanchism

If Pedro Sánchez's future after July 23 remains an enigma, the future of sanchism seems sentenced. More and more internal voices agree on the need to slam the door on the adventure with the extremes. The moderate line that calls for a state agreement with PP prevails.

While Pedro Sánchez is in power, a PP-PSOE coalition is ruled out. But if Sánchez leaves, it is more likely that the party will make a sharp turn to the center and try to challenge the conservative tsunami from a useful opposition. The idea would be to isolate Vox and agree with PP on major state issues.

This would allow PSOE to gain time to find a strong leader and present itself in future elections as a state party. Additionally, its former partners like Sumar and ERC, now without power, would wear out, yielding more space to PSOE. If anything is clear, it is that Spain may be just hours away from saying goodbye to sanchism.