New poll in Catalonia: problems for Salvador Illa and Puigdemont plummets

A new electoral poll confirms the political deadlock in Catalonia 300 days after Salvador Illa's investiture. PSC would not only win the elections again but would also widen its lead over Junts. However, the collapse of its partners, ERC and Comuns, would make it impossible to renew its minority government.

The NC Report poll for La Razón reaffirms the trend observed in the latest polls. PSC is consolidating a centrist space that, however, is still insufficient to guarantee governability and stability. The woke left and the separatist movement are collapsing, while PP, Vox, and Aliança Catalana keep growing.

These results would leave only two alternatives, a sociovergence or a repeat election. In any case, they are a warning to Salvador Illa and his risky strategy of letting himself be dragged along by declining parties like ERC, Comuns, and CUP.

CUP would hold the key to governability

According to this new poll, PSC would increase its lead from 42 to 44 deputies, while Junts would drop from 35 to 31. Although the socialists keep growing, the math would no longer allow them to keep governing in a minority. ERC would lose two seats (18) and Comuns one (5), so the tripartite would total 67 (one short of an absolute majority).

This would open up an unexpected scenario in which CUP, with three deputies, would hold the key to governability. But for that to happen, they would have to invest Salvador Illa, whom they've said represents the most right-wing and pro-Spanish PSC in history. If CUP refused to make Illa president, then there would only be one dilemma: sociovergence or repeat election.

PP would gain one more deputy (16), and Vox would also win a seat and reach 12. Aliança Catalana would gain four deputies and rise to six. This is solid growth, but more moderate than what the latest polls indicated, which gave them up to 10.

The constitutionalist bloc would widen its lead with the 72 deputies from PSC, PP, and Vox. Although this is an unnatural alliance and therefore unfeasible. The separatist movement (Junts, ERC, CUP) would total 52 deputies, and even adding the five from Comuns, they wouldn't come close to an absolute majority.

Junts and Aliança Catalana

Junts and Aliança Catalana are waging the most brutal battle of recent years in the Catalan political arena. Polls keep showing an upward trend for "orriolism" and an unstoppable decline for Puigdemont's party.

The president of Junts believes that the polls are manipulated by those who want to harm him. But at the same time, he is adapting his strategy to the competition with Aliança Catalana. This indicates that he does believe the polls, and that the electoral trend in Catalonia is sowing panic in Waterloo.

This explains Junts's shift on issues such as immigration and the Islamic veil, but always trailing behind Orriols. In addition, the mayor of Ripoll is taking advantage of her seat in Parliament to establish herself as the new leader of the separatist movement. Meanwhile, Puigdemont's star is fading rapidly.