Poll in Catalonia: Aliança Catalana and Vox surge; left-wing parties decline

This Wednesday, the second barometer of the year from the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO), the Catalan CIS, has been published. The survey conducted by this body, which is under the Generalitat, shows the rise of the most anti-establishment parties in Catalonia: Aliança Catalana and Vox.

Psc would win; Aliança Catalana and Vox, soaring

If elections were held right now, Salvador Illa would win again. PSC would obtain between 40 and 42 seats. Currently, the socialists have 42. However, in the first barometer of the year, CEO gave them up to 43 deputies. That is, according to the Catalan CIS, Illa could be paying, even if only slightly, for the crisis President Pedro Sánchez and PSOE are experiencing after the outbreak of the Cerdán case.

Junts would be in second place, and they wouldn't manage to recover from the free fall they've been experiencing for a year. If in the elections just over a year ago they won 35 deputies, now the figure would be around 28-30. However, this is a slightly better result than the 27-29 predicted by CEO in its first barometer of the year.

The third force in Parliament would be Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya. Oriol Junqueras's party would improve their results compared to the last elections. At this time, they have 20 seats, and the second CEO barometer gives them between 21-23. However, this is the same figure as in the first barometer of the year. That is, they would be experiencing a certain stagnation.

The Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió forecasts with its survey a slight decrease for PP, which would still keep its position as the fourth force in Parliament. With 14-15 seats, Alejandro Fernández's party drops compared to the first barometer of 2025 (14-16), but they could easily keep the 15 deputies they currently have.

The constant campaigns by the main parties and their subsidized media don't harm Vox; on the contrary. Ignacio Garriga's party, which is always predicted to have reached its ceiling in Catalonia, would keep rising. They now have 11 deputies. The first barometer predicted a range of 10-12, and in this barometer, they would soar to 12-14.

Surely the main news is Aliança Catalana. Sílvia Orriols's party would keep their meteoric trajectory in Catalan politics. In May 2024, they won two deputies in their debut in a Parliament election. The first CEO barometer of the year gave them 8-10 deputies. Now, the figure reaches 10-11. That is, the upward trend is more than evident.

Comuns and CUP close out the CEO. Meanwhile, the CUP party repeats results compared to the survey from a few months ago (3-4 seats, they now have 4), while Jéssica Albiach's party would suffer a setback compared to the last barometer. They currently have 6 deputies, a few months ago CEO predicted 6-7, and now the figure drops to 5-6.