The Amnesty for Junqueras and Puigdemont Stalls Again, Prolonging the Pro-independence Agony

The Amnesty Law is the silent compass of this legislature and also of the post-procesismo era. The existence of the "Frankenstein Government" largely responds to the PSOE's concession of amnesty. However, from the beginning, one thing was clear: the judicial via crucis was going to be long, and that only benefited the PSOE.

Like a domino effect, the Amnesty Law has to go through phases. We are now in the penultimate phase, that is, for the Constitutional Court to rule. In reality, everyone takes for granted that the Constitutional Court will accept the Amnesty Law. It will be then that the final phase begins.

After the Constitutional Court, it will be the turn of European justice. It is there where the Spanish Supreme Court reappears. Why? Because the Supreme Court has already warned that it will file an appeal to Europe if the Constitutional Court endorses the amnesty. Consequently, until Europe rules, the amnesty will remain hanging in the air.

In fact, the Supreme Court already has the argumentation it will present to Europe ready. The 1-O referendum - reasons the criminal chamber - was a financial embezzlement that affected the economic interests of the European Union. This was the thesis that the prosecutors drafted shortly after the law was passed and that the magistrates made their own.

The Lack of Strategy of Procesismo

This entire obstacle course has a basic and essential problem for the procesismo leaders: time. The forecasts point out that, in the best-case scenario, European justice will rule around the year 2028. That is, when the municipal, general, and regional elections of 2027 have already passed.

It is here that two things become evident that neither the procesismo nor the subsidized press said publicly. The first is that these extended deadlines turn procesismo into a hostage of the PSOE. After all, one must not lose sight of the basic political horizon, that is, power. Sánchez is in Moncloa, Illa has dismantled the indepe majority, and the Barcelona City Council is also socialist.

The second fact that becomes evident is that the amnesty had an essentially personalist intention. In political terms, this judicial delay renders both de facto and de jure, Junqueras and Puigdemont useless. Meanwhile, neither Junts nor ERC can reorganize proportionally to the procesismo collapse.

Collapse by Installments

There are the results. Puigdemont, who is a leader by delegation, can't prevent Orriols from stealing seven deputies from him. Meanwhile, it is also evident that ERC is a sidekick of the PSC's Govern, which also replicates the situation in Madrid. That is, the socialists in power in exchange for very watered-down concessions (Rodalies, immigration, singular financing, Catalan in Europe, etc.).

All this would be secondary, even anecdotal, if it weren't for the fact that procesismo has staked its future on Puigdemont and Junqueras. There has been no renewal of discourse, no renewal of leaders. The only thing there are two leaders who use their respective parties' platform to solve their personal situations.

Finally, these judicial deadlines guarantee that the PSOE will be able to endure the entire legislature (unless corruption becomes unsustainable). Moreover, none of the members of "Frankenstein" can afford an early election. Even less so procesismo, which has fared very poorly in the last elections.