The Radical Sector of Junts Wins the Battle

Optimism reigns in PSOE and Sumar regarding negotiations with Junts. In PSOE, they have assumed from the very first moment that there will be an agreement, and in Sumar, they claim that everything is going according to plan. However, this overconfidence contrasts with the growing reservations within Catalan independence.

This very week, ERC has warned that nothing is certain and that negotiations could become complicated. Now, the sector of Junts in favor of the investiture also warns about the entrenchment of the hard core in Waterloo. Carles Puigdemont has dug in and doesn't want to give in.

According to El Confidencial, the moderate sector of Junts sees it as "very difficult, if not impossible," for Puigdemont to lower his demands to invest Pedro Sánchez. The former president remains steadfast. Either PSOE agrees to amnesty and a referendum, or they can forget about the seven post-convergent deputies.

Puigdemont, Increasingly Tough

Although there was initially a possible lowering of his demands, recent events have hardened Carles Puigdemont. The court decisions regarding Catalan in schools or his own judicial situation have been definitive. In the hard sector of Junts, they believe there is a state operation against independence.

Additionally, there is the growing pressure from radical pro-independence supporters, who call for street mobilization if there is any kind of "betrayal by their leaders." In Waterloo, they believe that giving in now would be following the same path as ERC. In contrast, the strategy of blocking would return Junts to its position of hegemony in the pro-independence space.

All of this has convinced Carles Puigdemont not to listen to the siren calls coming from Madrid. In his circle, they are making calculations, and if Junts doesn't give in, in the next elections, they could capture the vote of abstentionists and a part of ERC. The party would then be in a position to deal a definitive blow to Esquerra in the next regional elections.

The Left and Moderate Independents Join Forces

In recent days, there has been an offensive by the moderates of Junts and the economic establishment to soften Puigdemont. But they have little influence in the formation. Those who are in a position to convince the former president are people from the leadership like Jordi Turull and Laura Borràs, who are in favor of blocking.

The initial attempts by the socialists with the Junts members have not gone too well. Jordi Turull himself warned a few days ago that PSOE has not moved an inch since July 23, and this complicates everything. But neither does the hard sector of Junts make any concessions.

The pragmatists are now desperately trying to open the former president's eyes. They want to convince him that they are facing a unique opportunity to achieve a historic advance for independence without having to reach a referendum. Otherwise, they could end up without a referendum, without amnesty, and without greater levels of self-government and funding.