It's Salvador Illa's Turn

Yesterday's results are very significant regarding the political shift taking place in Catalonia. The pro-independence movement is retreating and losing nine deputies, while PSC wins a general election in Catalonia again after fifteen years. Salvador Illa thus confirms his candidacy to lead the political cycle change in the Catalan territory.

Yesterday's general elections confirm the upward trend of PSC, which began in the Catalan elections of February 2021 and the municipal elections on May 28. Yesterday's victory not only strengthens Salvador Illa. It also puts Pere Aragonès against the ropes, who might have to call for early elections.

But everything depends on Spain's governability. PSOE knows it needs the support of the pro-independence movement to govern in Spain, and Pedro Sánchez is willing to explore the path of Junts's support to forge a majority in Congress. This opens two possible scenarios in the turbulent Catalan context.

Salvador Illa, Pending Madrid

Salvador Illa has won three elections in Catalonia as the leader of the opposition. In a normal context, ERC's minority government would be forced to call early elections to clarify the balance of power in Parlament. But the political deadlock in Spain and the atypical Catalan reality make nothing normal.

Last night's results enable Salvador Illa to ask Aragonès to dissolve the chamber and call elections. But the leader of the Catalan socialists awaits orders from Madrid.

If PSOE and Junts manage to find a formula of understanding, ERC could ask Sánchez to support the Aragonès government until the end of the legislature in exchange for their support. That is, there would be no elections in Catalonia until 2025.

But if there is no PSOE-Junts agreement (something very likely) and elections are repeated, Salvador Illa would have free rein to increase pressure on ERC in Catalonia. In this situation, Aragonès could be forced to call elections at the beginning of 2024.

Illa Has to Step Forward

The clear change of trend in Catalonia forces the leader of the opposition to call for elections to clarify the landscape. Salvador Illa has to assume his responsibility and make Sánchez understand that the situation in Catalonia demands new elections. And that these can't be postponed for two more years.

PSC has achieved the most difficult task, which is to dethrone the pro-independence movement after fifteen years. But now is the time to assert its strength to force ERC to call elections. Never since 2006 has the pro-independence movement been so weakened, and waiting two years for Catalans to vote would be missing a golden opportunity.