The new fiasco over Catalan's official status leaves Carles Puigdemont with no way out

Carles Puigdemont made the controversial decision to invest President Pedro Sánchez in exchange for amnesty and official status for Catalan in Europe. Eighteen months later, he has neither one nor the other. Moreover, the diplomatic war over Catalan's official status in the EU has closed the door to a possible understanding with PP to bring down Sánchez.

This leaves Carles Puigdemont with no way out, as he will now have to go down with President Pedro Sánchez. This new fiasco has once again shown the failure of his strategy. It also comes at the worst possible time, with polls against him and municipal elections drawing ever closer.

For now, Junts hasn't wanted to go after PSOE and Puigdemont has directed his criticism at Feijóo. On the one hand, because the war for Catalan's official status isn't over and Junts still needs Moncloa. But also because he is aware that after what has happened in recent days, it will be very difficult to justify an alliance with PP.

Feijóo has led, together with Vox, a diplomatic offensive in Europe that the separatist movement labels as "Catalanophobia." Génova sought to muddy relations between the Government and Junts, but in doing so has also blown up its bridges of understanding with Puigdemont.

This definitively distances the motion of censure, although it also spares Feijóo the electoral costs that would have come with making a deal with Junts. Moreover, the latest polls give PP and Vox a sufficiently broad majority to be able to do without Puigdemont. The one who loses the most in all this is the former president, who now finds himself in a very adverse situation.

puigdemont's strategy failure

With the door closed to PP, Puigdemont has no choice but to go down with Sánchez. The worst part for him is that this reduces his ability to put pressure on PSOE in their ongoing standoff. The Socialists know that his position has now been weakened and that he has no other option but to keep trusting President Pedro Sánchez.

In just a few months, Puigdemont has led Junts into isolation in the Parliament of Catalonia and into the most absolute lack of definition in Madrid. On the one hand, he takes a right-wing stance by even voting with PP and Vox. On the other hand, he continues to support the Socialist Government, which is being pulled to the left by Sumar, ERC, and Bildu.

Although the main cost of his alliance with PSOE is still in the eyes of the separatist base. His "historic agreement" with PSOE was conditioned on achieving "historic advances" that haven't materialized.

Puigdemont is aware that each new failure, whether with amnesty or with Catalan's official status, further erodes his credibility. Nothing now allows him to differentiate himself from ERC's failures with Rodalies or special financing. What he feared most has ended up happening: seeing Junts lumped together with ERC.

the worst possible ending

Blaming PP now is still a way to deflect responsibility but not to convince a separatist movement tired of the independence process. The reality is that Junts, like ERC, have engaged in the game of agreeing to major measures knowing it would be very difficult to deliver. In fact, this is what the independence process is about: creating expectations that in the long run only generate more frustration.

Puigdemont will have to keep supporting President Pedro Sánchez in the hope that he fulfills his promise to grant him amnesty. Although he also runs the risk that Sánchez will call early elections without having fulfilled his commitments. This would be the worst possible ending.

The outlook now facing Junts is discouraging. Isolated in the opposition and increasingly distant from PSC in Catalonia, it is also about to lose its advantageous position as the key to governability in Spain. The worst part for Puigdemont is to think that he may have mortgaged his political capital in exchange for a handful of unfulfilled promises.

Finally, Feijóo's offensive against Catalan's official status strengthens the most alejandrista sectors of PP. Those who, led by Alejandro Fernández, have called on Génova to act without hesitation against the independence process.