Pro-independence Voters Send a Serious Warning to Junts and Erc

The Formation of the Congressional Board, tomorrow Thursday, will mark the beginning of the legislative session and the first battle to reach Moncloa. PSOE and PP are still exploring alliances to secure the majority of this key body. For now, there is a technical tie, and everything will depend on the decision of the Catalan independents.

ERC has hardened its position in recent days, although it is likely that they will eventually give in. Meanwhile, Junts remains an enigma. Carles Puigdemont's party maintains silence and will not reveal their vote until minutes before the session.

What is clear is that the post-election scenario has revived the dormant forces of pro-independence in Catalonia. Beyond the party leaderships, there is a widespread feeling among the grassroots that this is a historic opportunity. A survey in one of the main pro-independence media outlets shows something significant.

The Thesis of the Blockade Prevails

A survey in the media Nació Digital asks its readers if ERC and Junts should facilitate the presidency of Congress for PSOE. 61% of those who voted choose to maintain the blockade, while 39% are in favor of yielding.

A majority of pro-independence voters consider that the blockade of Spain's governance is positive. This sector urges the leadership of the pro-independence parties to hold firm if PSOE doesn't yield to their demands. Amnesty and the referendum remain non-negotiable points for the most radical.

There is also a sector of the independence movement, apparently more minor, that considers going to new elections as losing a golden opportunity. In this line, they think that the rope should be stretched to the maximum but without breaking it. This would allow for historic concessions from the State to the independence movement.

The ERC-Junts Battle

Esquerra has a difficult position. On one hand, it wants to continue the alliance with the left in Madrid, but on the other, it needs to establish a tough profile against its competitor, Junts. Republican leaders have sent warning messages to PSOE in recent hours, although it seems unlikely that they will block the progressive majority in the Congress of Deputies.

The situation is also tricky for Junts. Puigdemont is under pressure from the moderate sector, which calls for expanding the negotiation margin, and the radical sector, entrenched in political blockade. In Waterloo, they are aware that the decision they make will mark the future of the independence movement and their own party.

Objective, Moncloa

Meanwhile, the two major Spanish parties are still exhausting their options. The right-wing bloc (PP, Vox, and UPN) adds up to 171 deputies, which could be 172 if they secure the votes of the Canary Coalition. They would still need five, and Feijóo is now exploring an in extremis pact with PNV, although it seems complicated.

The left-wing bloc (PSOE, Sumar, ERC, Bildu, and BNG) would add up to 171 seats if they secure PNV's support. They still need the seven deputies of Junts to take the majority from the conservative bloc. In Ferraz, they are convinced that the Junts members will grow at the last moment.

Whoever secures the majority of Congress will have a clear advantage in trying to form a government. Additionally, if Pedro Sánchez finally manages to be invested, the Congressional Board will be a key body. From there, legislative processes such as amnesty can be facilitated.