More than 40% of the population between 25 and 39 years old in Catalonia is foreign

The migratory boom in Spain, particularly in Catalonia, has reopened the debate on the demographic crisis in Catalonia. On one hand, more and more people from cultures with high birth rates are arriving. On the other hand, there is a rapid decline in births among the native population.

According to updated census data as of January 1, 2024, more than 40% of the population between 25 and 39 years old in Catalonia are foreigners.

In the 20 to 24 age range, natives are still a large majority (67%) compared to 31% of foreigners. But the statistic flips in the 25 to 29 age range, where foreigners already make up 43.1%. The proportion increases to 45.5% from 30 to 34 years old and returns to 43.1% from 35 to 39 years old.

From forty years onward, the proportion gradually decreases again. This data is significant because the increase in the foreign population occurs at ages with the greatest capacity to have children. In these age ranges, the native population reproduces at a much slower rate than the foreign population.

Catalan identity, at risk?

The association Renaixença Demogràfica for the promotion of birth rates warns that "for the first time in decades, a generation of Catalans is once again a minority in Catalonia."

They explain that this had already happened with Spanish migratory waves in previous decades, but now "the starting point" changes. They warn that "an aging population has less capacity to absorb immigrants because the young age groups are less numerous."

In short, they point out that "for a demographic replacement to occur, it is not necessary to minoritize it in all age groups." Rather, "it is enough for it to happen in the age groups capable of having children."

Finally, they say that "some of those born in Catalonia are second generations not integrated into Catalan identity" and that "they will not transmit Catalan." The feeling increases that mass immigration is detrimental to the survival of Catalan culture and its language.

Demographic crisis

The theory of demographic replacement, supported in this case with official data from the National Institute of Statistics, remains controversial. Some sectors link the theory of demographic replacement to the far right and its obsession with demonizing immigration. Although the data in this case leaves little room for interpretation.

The fact that there are more and more foreigners in the childbearing age groups suggests that they will multiply in the short and medium term, while natives will retreat. Especially considering that in many cases they are closed cultural communities not inclined to mix with natives. That is, they only marry and have children among themselves.

Meanwhile, there is the birth rate crisis of the native population, which is worsening every year. In 2024, the fertility of Spaniards and Catalans hit rock bottom with 1.04 children per couple. This is contributed to by genetic and socioeconomic factors, but also the rise of anti-natal messages in forums and media.