The first CIS poll after the Santos Cerdán case sinks PSOE and its partners

Not even CIS can save PSOE now, which is currently a ship adrift. The indictment for corruption of former socialist organization secretary Santos Cerdán has left President Pedro Sánchez's government on the verge of shipwreck. The first survey from the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) records a seven-point drop for PSOE, stagnation for PP, and a surge for Vox.

Last month's survey showed a recovery for PSOE, which was increasing its lead over PP led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Now, not even CIS can cover it up. PSOE is sinking and dragging down the partners that are keeping it afloat.

ERC and Junts also fall

PSOE drops to 27% in voting intention, although it still remains half a point above PP. CIS also gives Feijóo a slight drop of almost one point compared to the last barometer. The party benefiting from the crisis is Vox, which grows by 5.7% to 18.9% in voting intention. This is the highest percentage ever obtained by Santiago Abascal's party in a survey. 

Podemos is the only partner of President Pedro Sánchez that withstands the crisis, as CIS gives it two tenths more, reaching 4.4%. Sumar improves by almost one point, up to 7.8%, but this is not enough to cover up the debacle that would reduce it to a marginal party in Congress. 

As for the separatist parties, ERC would lose two tenths and be left with 1.2%. Junts would lose half a point and be left with 0.6%. This is a hard blow for Oriol Junqueras, but especially for Carles Puigdemont.

The government against the ropes

The survey thus supports President Pedro Sánchez's theory that going to elections right now would be sending PSOE to the slaughterhouse. The poll indicates a clearly conservative majority, although in this case with a specific weight for Vox. President Pedro Sánchez's partners are being dragged down by the crisis, especially ERC and Junts.

There are currently two major questions on the table: whether President Pedro Sánchez will manage to remain in government, and what the alternative is if the government falls. Regarding the first, the big question right now is how long his partners will keep supporting President Pedro Sánchez. The CIS survey shows that support for the government is seriously eroding its credibility, and parties like Junts could be tempted to break away.

The other big question is what Feijóo will do after the elections. Although the polls make it clear that PP-Vox is the formula preferred by Spaniards, Génova now leans toward governing alone with external support from PSOE. PP is now presenting a clearly centrist profile to attract PSOE voters, while Vox has radicalized its discourse.